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Probability of failure
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Series: ASM Handbook Archive
Volume: 11
Publisher: ASM International
Published: 01 January 2002
DOI: 10.31399/asm.hb.v11.a0003503
EISBN: 978-1-62708-180-1
Abstract
This article describes the methodology for performing a failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). It explains the methodology with the help of a hot water heater and provides a discussion on the role of FMEA in the design process. The article presents the analysis procedures and shows how proper planning, along with functional, interface, and detailed fault analyses, makes FMEA a process that facilitates the design throughout the product development cycle. It also discusses the use of fault equivalence to reduce the amount of labor required by the analysis. The article shows how fault trees are used to unify the analysis of failure modes caused by design errors, manufacturing and maintenance processes, materials, and so on, and to assess the probability of failure mode occurrence. It concludes with information on some of the approaches to automating the FMEA.
Series: ASM Handbook Archive
Volume: 11
Publisher: ASM International
Published: 01 January 2002
DOI: 10.31399/asm.hb.v11.a0003514
EISBN: 978-1-62708-180-1
Abstract
This article describes the historical background, uncertainties in structural parameters, classifications, and application areas of probabilistic analysis. It provides a discussion on the basic definition of random variables, some common distribution functions used in engineering, selection of a probability distribution, the failure model definition, and a definition of the probability of failure. The article also explains the solution techniques for special cases and general solution techniques, such as first-second-order reliability methods, the advanced mean value method, the response surface method, and Monte Carlo sampling. A brief introduction to importance sampling, time-variant reliability, system reliability, and risk analysis and target reliabilities is also provided. The article examines the various application problems for which probabilistic analysis is an essential element. Examples of the use of probabilistic analysis are presented. The article concludes with an overview of some of the commercially available software programs for performing probabilistic analysis.
Series: ASM Handbook
Volume: 20
Publisher: ASM International
Published: 01 January 1997
DOI: 10.31399/asm.hb.v20.a0002468
EISBN: 978-1-62708-194-8
Abstract
This article provides a schematic illustration of factors that should be considered in component design. It discusses the effect of component geometry on the behavior of materials and groups the main parameters that affect the value of the factor of safety. The article illustrates the estimation of probability of failure with an example. It reviews the designing and selection of materials for static strength and stiffness. The article also describes the causes of failure of engineering components, including design deficiencies, poor selection of materials, and manufacturing defects.
Book: Fatigue and Fracture
Series: ASM Handbook
Volume: 19
Publisher: ASM International
Published: 01 January 1996
DOI: 10.31399/asm.hb.v19.a0002369
EISBN: 978-1-62708-193-1
Abstract
There are two parts to deal with uncertainty in fatigue design: determining the distributions of possible values for all uncertain inputs and calculating the probability of failure due to all the uncertain inputs. This article discusses the sources of uncertainty in a fatigue analysis, such as the material properties, distribution of applied stress levels within a given environment, environments or loading intensities, and modeling or prediction. It presents a probabilistic approach for analyzing the uncertainties and determining the level of reliability (probability of failure).