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Probabilistic analysis
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Series: ASM Handbook
Volume: 17
Publisher: ASM International
Published: 01 August 2018
DOI: 10.31399/asm.hb.v17.a0006438
EISBN: 978-1-62708-190-0
Abstract
This article provides a discussion on general nondestructive evaluation (NDE) science and considerations for specific technique selection. It explains the basic concept of flaw detection and evaluation and probability of detection. The article provides an overview of NDE methods with their applications, limitations, and advantages. It includes details on NDE codes, calibration standards, inspection frequency, guidance on how to perform inspections, applicability, and mandatory and nonmandatory practice. The article also provides tips on where to focus inspections in order to align with the likely areas of damage or degradation and a number of other aspects of inspection.
Series: ASM Handbook
Volume: 17
Publisher: ASM International
Published: 01 August 2018
DOI: 10.31399/asm.hb.v17.a0006463
EISBN: 978-1-62708-190-0
Abstract
Probability of detection (POD) assesses the performance of a non-destructive evaluation (NDE)-based inspection, which is a method used to determine the capability of an inspection as a function of defect type and defect size. This article provides an overview of the concept of POD, why it is needed, the history behind the development of POD, how POD assessments are performed, and how modeling and simulation can be integrated into the execution of a POD assessment. It describes the methods by which POD is determined. This includes detail on the experimental process to acquire the needed data, the mathematical methods to obtain a POD curve, and techniques to assess uncertainty in the POD curve as it is obtained from a limited data set. The concept of model-assisted POD (MAPOD) is introduced, with additional details and representative examples of MAPOD.
Series: ASM Handbook Archive
Volume: 11
Publisher: ASM International
Published: 01 January 2002
DOI: 10.31399/asm.hb.v11.a0003503
EISBN: 978-1-62708-180-1
Abstract
This article describes the methodology for performing a failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). It explains the methodology with the help of a hot water heater and provides a discussion on the role of FMEA in the design process. The article presents the analysis procedures and shows how proper planning, along with functional, interface, and detailed fault analyses, makes FMEA a process that facilitates the design throughout the product development cycle. It also discusses the use of fault equivalence to reduce the amount of labor required by the analysis. The article shows how fault trees are used to unify the analysis of failure modes caused by design errors, manufacturing and maintenance processes, materials, and so on, and to assess the probability of failure mode occurrence. It concludes with information on some of the approaches to automating the FMEA.
Series: ASM Handbook Archive
Volume: 11
Publisher: ASM International
Published: 01 January 2002
DOI: 10.31399/asm.hb.v11.a0003514
EISBN: 978-1-62708-180-1
Abstract
This article describes the historical background, uncertainties in structural parameters, classifications, and application areas of probabilistic analysis. It provides a discussion on the basic definition of random variables, some common distribution functions used in engineering, selection of a probability distribution, the failure model definition, and a definition of the probability of failure. The article also explains the solution techniques for special cases and general solution techniques, such as first-second-order reliability methods, the advanced mean value method, the response surface method, and Monte Carlo sampling. A brief introduction to importance sampling, time-variant reliability, system reliability, and risk analysis and target reliabilities is also provided. The article examines the various application problems for which probabilistic analysis is an essential element. Examples of the use of probabilistic analysis are presented. The article concludes with an overview of some of the commercially available software programs for performing probabilistic analysis.
Series: ASM Handbook Archive
Volume: 11
Publisher: ASM International
Published: 01 January 2002
DOI: 10.31399/asm.hb.v11.a0003515
EISBN: 978-1-62708-180-1
Abstract
This article provides information on life assessment strategies and conceptually illustrates the interplay of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) and fracture mechanics in the damage tolerant approach. It presents information on probability of detection (POD) and probability of false alarm (PFA). The article describes the damage tolerance approach to life management of cyclic-limited engine components and lists the commonly used nondestructive evaluation methods. It concludes with an illustration on the role of NDE, as quantified by POD, in fully probabilistic life management.
Series: ASM Handbook
Volume: 20
Publisher: ASM International
Published: 01 January 1997
DOI: 10.31399/asm.hb.v20.a0002432
EISBN: 978-1-62708-194-8
Abstract
Reliability is a measure of the capacity of equipment or systems to operate without failure in the service environment. This article focuses on reliability in design and presents equations governing the instantaneous failure rate, general reliability function, mean time to failure, mean time between failures, and useful life period. The article describes the calculation of reliabilities for series and parallel arrangements of a complex system. It provides a comparison of probabilistic and deterministic design and concludes with a discussion on reliability growth.
Series: ASM Handbook
Volume: 20
Publisher: ASM International
Published: 01 January 1997
DOI: 10.31399/asm.hb.v20.a0002468
EISBN: 978-1-62708-194-8
Abstract
This article provides a schematic illustration of factors that should be considered in component design. It discusses the effect of component geometry on the behavior of materials and groups the main parameters that affect the value of the factor of safety. The article illustrates the estimation of probability of failure with an example. It reviews the designing and selection of materials for static strength and stiffness. The article also describes the causes of failure of engineering components, including design deficiencies, poor selection of materials, and manufacturing defects.
Series: ASM Handbook
Volume: 20
Publisher: ASM International
Published: 01 January 1997
DOI: 10.31399/asm.hb.v20.a0002436
EISBN: 978-1-62708-194-8
Abstract
Risk and hazard analysis can be effectively used during design reviews to provide valuable feedback to the design to avoid failures. This article discusses the types of risks, namely, real risk, statistical risk, predicted risk, and perceived risk. It describes the principle and technical methods of risk/hazard analysis practiced in the industry to identify possible hazards and the resources necessary to avoid or reduce risks. These methods include the failure mode and effect analysis, fault tree analysis, event tree analysis, risk/benefit analysis, safety analysis, and probabilistic estimates.
Book: Fatigue and Fracture
Series: ASM Handbook
Volume: 19
Publisher: ASM International
Published: 01 January 1996
DOI: 10.31399/asm.hb.v19.a0002369
EISBN: 978-1-62708-193-1
Abstract
There are two parts to deal with uncertainty in fatigue design: determining the distributions of possible values for all uncertain inputs and calculating the probability of failure due to all the uncertain inputs. This article discusses the sources of uncertainty in a fatigue analysis, such as the material properties, distribution of applied stress levels within a given environment, environments or loading intensities, and modeling or prediction. It presents a probabilistic approach for analyzing the uncertainties and determining the level of reliability (probability of failure).