Search Results for uncertainty propagation methods

This article provides an outline of the issues to consider in performing a probabilistic life assessment. It begins with an historical background and introduces the most common methods. The article then describes those methods covering subjects such as the required random variable definitions, how uncertainty is quantified, and input for the associated random variables, as well as the characterization of the response uncertainty. Next, it focuses on specific and generic uncertainty propagation techniques: first- and second-order reliability methods, the response surface method, and the most frequently used simulation methods, standard Monte Carlo sampling, Latin hypercube sampling, and discrete probability distribution sampling. Further, the article discusses methods developed to analyze the results of probabilistic methods and covers the use of epistemic and aleatory sampling as well as several statistical techniques. Finally, it illustrates some of the techniques with application problems for which probabilistic analysis is an essential element.

This article describes the historical background, uncertainties in structural parameters, classifications, and application areas of probabilistic analysis. It provides a discussion on the basic definition of random variables, some common distribution functions used in engineering, selection of a probability distribution, the failure model definition, and a definition of the probability of failure. The article also explains the solution techniques for special cases and general solution techniques, such as first-second-order reliability methods, the advanced mean value method, the response surface method, and Monte Carlo sampling. A brief introduction to importance sampling, time-variant reliability, system reliability, and risk analysis and target reliabilities is also provided. The article examines the various application problems for which probabilistic analysis is an essential element. Examples of the use of probabilistic analysis are presented. The article concludes with an overview of some of the commercially available software programs for performing probabilistic analysis.

Nuclear power plants typically experience two or three high-cycle fatigue failures of stainless steel socket-welded connections in small bore piping during each plant-year of operation. This paper discusses fatigue-induced failure in socket-welded joints and the strategy Texas Utilities Electric Company (TU Electric) has implemented in response to these failures. High-cycle fatigue is invisible to proven commercial nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods during crack initiation and the initial phases of crack growth. Under a constant applied stress, cracks grow at accelerating rates, which means cracks extend from a detectable size to a through-wall crack in a relatively short time. When fatigue cracks grow large enough to be visible to NDE, it is likely that the component is near the end of its useful life. TU Electric has determined that an inspection program designed to detect a crack prior to the component leaking would involve frequent inspections at a given location and that the cost of the inspection program would far exceed the benefits of avoiding a leak. Instead, TU Electric locates these cracks by visually monitoring for leaks. Field experience with fatigue-induced cracks in socket-welded joints has confirmed that visual monitoring does detect cracks in a timely manner, that these cracks do not result in catastrophic failures, and that the plant can be safely shut down in spite of a leaking socket-welded joint in a small bore pipe. Historical data from TU Electric and Southwest Research Institute are presented regarding the frequency of failures, failure locations, and the potential causes. The topics addressed include 1) metallurgical and fractographic features of fatigue cracks at the weld toe and weld root; 2) factors that are associated with fatigue, such as mechanical vibration, internal pulsation, joint design, and welding workmanship; and 3) implications of a leaking crack on plant safety. TU Electric has implemented the use of modified welding techniques for the fabrication of socket-welded joints that are expected to improve their ability to tolerate fatigue.

The lifetime assessment of polymeric products is complicated, and if the methodology utilized leads to inaccurate predictions, the mistakes could lead to financial loss as well as potential loss of life, depending on the service application of the product. This article provides information on the common aging mechanisms of polymeric materials and the common accelerated testing methods used to obtain relevant data that are used with the prediction models that enable service life assessment. Beginning with a discussion of what constitutes a product failure, this article then reviews four of the eight major aging mechanisms, namely environmental stress cracking, chemical degradation, creep, and fatigue, as well as the methods used in product service lifetime assessment for them. Later, several methods of service lifetime prediction that have gained industry-wide acceptance, namely the hydrostatic design basis approach, Miner's rule, the Arrhenius model, and the Paris Law for fatigue crack propagation, are discussed.

The goal of using nondestructive evaluation (NDE) in conjunction with failure analysis is to obtain the most comprehensive set of data in order to characterize the details of the damage and determine the factors that allowed the damage to occur. The NDE results can be used to determine optimal areas upon which to focus for sectioning and metallography in order to further investigate the condition of the component. This article provides information on the inspection method available for failure analysis, including standard methods such as visual testing, penetrant testing, and magnetic particle testing. It covers the effects of various factors on the properties of the part that may impact failure analysis, describes the characterization of damage modes and crack sizes, and finally discusses the processes involved in application of NDE results to failure analysis.

There are many different types of polymeric materials, ranging from glassy to semicrystalline polymers and even blends. Their mechanical properties range from pure elastic with very high strains to fracture (elastomers) to almost pure linear elastic (Hookian behavior) with low strains to fracture (glassy polymers). This article provides an overview of historical development of fracture behavior in polymers. It discusses the processes involved in three fracture test methods for polymers, namely linear elastic fracture mechanics, elastic-plastic fracture mechanics, and post-yield fracture mechanics.

Of the many different nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques, ultrasonic inspection continues to be the leading nondestructive method for inspecting composite materials, because measurements can be quantitative and the typical defect geometries and orientations lend themselves to detection and characterization. This article focuses on the three common methods for ultrasonic nondestructive inspection of plastics, namely pitch-catch, through-transmission, and pulse-echo, as well as the three basic types of ultrasonic NDE scans: the A-scan, B-scan, and C-scan. The discussion includes the linear and phased array systems that are sometimes used for large-scale inspection tasks to reduce scan times, the various gating and image processing techniques, and how ultrasonic data are interpreted and presented. A brief section on future trends in ultrasonic inspection is presented at the end of the article.

Failure of structural polymeric materials under cyclic application of stress or strain is a subject of industrial importance. The understanding of fatigue mechanisms (damage) and the development of constitutive equations for damage evolution, leading to crack initiation and propagation as a function of loading or displacement history, represent a fundamental problem for scientists and engineers. This article describes the approaches to predict fatigue life and discusses the difference between thermal and mechanical fatigue failure of polymers.

This article provides an overview of the structural design process and discusses the life-limiting factors, including material defects, fabrication practices, and stress. It details the role of a failure investigator in performing nondestructive inspection. The article provides information on fatigue life assessment, elevated-temperature life assessment, and fitness-for-service life assessment.

This article briefly introduces the concepts of failure analysis, including root-cause analysis (RCA), and the role of failure analysis as a general engineering tool for enhancing product quality and failure prevention. It initially provides definitions of failure on several different levels, followed by a discussion on the role of failure analysis and the appreciation of quality assurance and user expectations. Systematic analysis of equipment failures reveals physical root causes that fall into one of four fundamental categories: design, manufacturing/installation, service, and material, which are discussed in the following sections along with examples. The tools available for failure analysis are then covered. Further, the article describes the categories of mode of failure: distortion or undesired deformation, fracture, corrosion, and wear. It provides information on the processes involved in RCA and the charting methods that may be useful in RCA and ends with a description of various factors associated with failure prevention.

Life assessment of structural components is used to avoid catastrophic failures and to maintain safe and reliable functioning of equipment. The failure investigator's input is essential for the meaningful life assessment of structural components. This article provides an overview of the structural design process, the failure analysis process, the failure investigator's role, and how failure analysis of structural components integrates into the determination of remaining life, fitness-for-service, and other life assessment concerns. The topics discussed include industry perspectives on failure and life assessment of components, structural design philosophies, the role of the failure analyst in life assessment, and the role of nondestructive inspection. They also cover fatigue life assessment, elevated-temperature life assessment, fitness-for-service life assessment, brittle fracture assessments, corrosion assessments, and blast, fire, and heat damage assessments.

This article briefly introduces the concepts of failure analysis and root cause analysis (RCA), and the role of failure analysis as a general engineering tool for enhancing product quality and failure prevention. It reviews four fundamental categories of physical root causes, namely, design deficiencies, material defects, manufacturing/installation defects, and service life anomalies, with examples. The article describes several common charting methods that may be useful in performing an RCA. It also discusses other failure analysis tools, including review of all sources of input and information, people interviews, laboratory investigations, stress analysis, and fracture mechanics analysis. The article concludes with information on the categories of failure and failure prevention.

This article offers an overview of fatigue fundamentals, common fatigue terminology, and examples of damage morphology. It presents a summary of relevant engineering mechanics, cyclic plasticity principles, and perspective on the modern design by analysis (DBA) techniques. The article reviews fatigue assessment methods incorporated in international design and post construction codes and standards, with special emphasis on evaluating welds. Specifically, the stress-life approach, the strain-life approach, and the fracture mechanics (crack growth) approach are described. An overview of high-cycle welded fatigue methods, cycle-counting techniques, and a discussion on ratcheting are also offered. A historical synopsis of fatigue technology advancements and commentary on component design and fabrication strategies to mitigate fatigue damage and improve damage tolerance are provided. Finally, the article presents practical fatigue assessment case studies of in-service equipment (pressure vessels) that employ DBA methods.

This article reviews the impact response of plastic components and the various methods used to evaluate it.. It describes the effects of loading rate on polymer deformation and the influence of temperature and strain rate on failure mode. It discusses the advantages and limitations of standard impact tests, the use of puncture tests for assessing material behavior under extreme strain, and the application of fracture mechanics for analyzing impact failures. It also develops and demonstrates the theory involved in the design and analysis of thin-walled, injection-molded plastic components.

This article focuses on the life assessment methods for elevated-temperature failure mechanisms and metallurgical instabilities that reduce life or cause loss of function or operating time of high-temperature components, namely, gas turbine blade, and power plant piping and tubing. The article discusses metallurgical instabilities of steel-based alloys and nickel-base superalloys. It provides information on several life assessment methods, namely, the life fraction rule, parameter-based assessments, the thermal-mechanical fatigue, coating evaluations, hardness testing, microstructural evaluations, the creep cavitation damage assessment, the oxide-scale-based life prediction, and high-temperature crack growth methods.

Nondestructive testing (NDT), also known as nondestructive evaluation (NDE), includes various techniques to characterize materials without damage. This article focuses on the typical NDE techniques that may be considered when conducting a failure investigation. The article begins with discussion about the concept of the probability of detection (POD), on which the statistical reliability of crack detection is based. The coverage includes the various methods of surface inspection, including visual-examination tools, scanning technology in dimensional metrology, and the common methods of detecting surface discontinuities by magnetic-particle inspection, liquid penetrant inspection, and eddy-current testing. The major NDE methods for internal (volumetric) inspection in failure analysis also are described.

This article describes some of the welding discontinuities and flaws characterized by nondestructive examinations. It focuses on nondestructive inspection methods used in the welding industry. The sources of weld discontinuities and defects as they relate to service failures or rejection in new construction inspection are also discussed. The article discusses the types of base metal cracks and metallurgical weld cracking. The article discusses the processes involved in the analysis of in-service weld failures. It briefly reviews the general types of process-related discontinuities of arc welds. Mechanical and environmental failure origins related to other types of welding processes are also described. The article explains the cause and effects of process-related discontinuities including weld porosity, inclusions, incomplete fusion, and incomplete penetration. Different fitness-for-service assessment methodologies for calculating allowable or critical flaw sizes are also discussed.

This article discusses the fundamental variables involved in fatigue-life assessment, which describe the effects and interaction of material behavior, geometry, and stress history on the life of a component. It compares the safe-life approach with the damage-tolerance approach, which employs the stress-life method of fatigue life assessment. The article examines the behavior of three different metallic materials used in the design and manufacture of structural components: steel, aluminum, and titanium. It also reviews the effects of retardation and spectrum load on component life. The article concludes with case studies of fatigue life assessment from the aerospace industry.

Accelerated life testing and aging methodologies are increasingly being used to generate engineering data for determining material property degradation and service life (or fitness for purpose) of plastic materials for hostile service conditions. This article presents an overview of accelerated life testing and aging of unreinforced and fiber-reinforced plastic materials for assessing long-term material properties and life expectancy in hostile service environments. It considers various environmental factors, such as temperature, humidity, pressure, weathering, liquid chemicals (i.e., alkalis and acids), ionizing radiation, and biological degradation, along with the combined effects of mechanical stress, temperature, and moisture (including environmental stress corrosion). The article also includes information on the use of accelerated testing for predicting material property degradation and long-term performance.

This article describes concepts and tools that can be used by the failure analyst to understand and address deformation, cracking, or fracture after a stress-related failure has occurred. Issues related to the determination and use of stress are detailed. Stress is defined, and a procedure to deal with stress by determining maximum values through stress transformation is described. The article provides the stress analysis equations of typical component geometries and discusses some of the implications of the stress analysis relative to failure in components. It focuses on linear elastic fracture mechanics analysis, with some mention of elastic-plastic fracture mechanics analysis. The article describes the probabilistic aspects of fatigue and fracture. Information on crack-growth simulation of the material is also provided.