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Probability of failure
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Series: ASM Handbook Archive
Volume: 11
Publisher: ASM International
Published: 01 January 2002
DOI: 10.31399/asm.hb.v11.a0003503
EISBN: 978-1-62708-180-1
Abstract
This article describes the methodology for performing a failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). It explains the methodology with the help of a hot water heater and provides a discussion on the role of FMEA in the design process. The article presents the analysis procedures and shows how proper planning, along with functional, interface, and detailed fault analyses, makes FMEA a process that facilitates the design throughout the product development cycle. It also discusses the use of fault equivalence to reduce the amount of labor required by the analysis. The article shows how fault trees are used to unify the analysis of failure modes caused by design errors, manufacturing and maintenance processes, materials, and so on, and to assess the probability of failure mode occurrence. It concludes with information on some of the approaches to automating the FMEA.
Series: ASM Handbook Archive
Volume: 11
Publisher: ASM International
Published: 01 January 2002
DOI: 10.31399/asm.hb.v11.a0003514
EISBN: 978-1-62708-180-1
Abstract
This article describes the historical background, uncertainties in structural parameters, classifications, and application areas of probabilistic analysis. It provides a discussion on the basic definition of random variables, some common distribution functions used in engineering, selection of a probability distribution, the failure model definition, and a definition of the probability of failure. The article also explains the solution techniques for special cases and general solution techniques, such as first-second-order reliability methods, the advanced mean value method, the response surface method, and Monte Carlo sampling. A brief introduction to importance sampling, time-variant reliability, system reliability, and risk analysis and target reliabilities is also provided. The article examines the various application problems for which probabilistic analysis is an essential element. Examples of the use of probabilistic analysis are presented. The article concludes with an overview of some of the commercially available software programs for performing probabilistic analysis.